On Time Forecast of Short-Term Debris Flow Hazards and Risk Range in Earthquake Region

Abstract:

After the Wenchuan Earthquake, rainstorm-induced debris flows in earthquake region occurred significantly more frequently. Two large debris flows took place in Zoumaling Gully in Qingping Township, Mianzhu County, Sichuan Province during 2008 and 2010, which caused great loss to local residents. Based on model test, a forecast model for the risk range of debris flows in Zoumaling Gully was established using statistic regression methods. A hazard forecast model was established based on grey system theory, which was used to forecast the time series of recent debris flows. The results show that the forecast values are in relatively good agreement with the measured values thus can provide reference for hazard prevention and mitigation in future.

• Periodical: Advanced Materials Research (Volume 933)
• Pages: 1028-1034
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.933.1028
• Online since: May 2014
• Authors: Chang Chun Li*, Li Yun Yi
• Keywords: Debris Flows, Mechanical Characteristics, Risk Range, Time Forecast

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