The Research on Area Classification in Intercity Rail Traffic Forecast Based on Cluster Analysis

Abstract:

With the rapid development of social economy, China has sped up urbanization and motorization, as thus the intercity rail transport has become an important means to solve the traffic inconvenience. Traffic distribution forecasting is the second stage of Four-Stage Predict Method. To make the trip distribution forecasting fully reflect the impact of socioeconomic and land use, this paper builds a generalized cost calculation model by fitting the areas based on cluster analysis, and the generalized cost is applied to Gravity Model as traffic impedance, which improves the forecast accuracy to some extent. Finally, taking Nanchang-Jiujiang intercity railway as the empirical analysis sample, the result obtained shows the practicality and simplicity of the method.

• Periodical: Advanced Materials Research (Volumes 945-949)
• Pages: 3296-3299
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.945-949.3296
• Online since: June 2014
• Authors: Dong Mei Yao, Deng Ying Jiang
• Keywords: Cluster Analysis, Generalized Cost, Gravity Model, Intercity Rail Transportation, Spatial Trip Distribution

References

[1] William H K, Huang Haijun. A combining trip distribution and assignment model for multiple user classes[J]. Transportation Research, part A, 1992(4): 21.

[2] Huapu Lu. Theory and method of transportation planning [M]. Beijing: Tsinghua University Press, 2006: 86-99. (in Chinese).

[3] Zhaosheng Yang, Zhaojiu Wang. Generalized cost and its application in the distribution of road network[J]. Techno-economic, 1994, (12): 57-63. (in Chinese).

[4] Haiqiang Wang, Guozhong Ma , Kaiyuan Liu . The research of intercity rail travel distribution prediction based on importance[J]. Industrial Economics and Management, 2004, (138): 93-96. (in Chinese).

[5] Dahai Liu, Li Ning, Chao Yang. SPSS15. 0 statistical analysis from entry to the master[M]. Beijing: Tsinghua University Press, 2008: 252-297. (in Chinese).

[6] Qin, Ming, Jiang Pei. The theoretical studies of city intercity rail passenger forecast from Nanchang to Jiujiang [J]. Technology Square, 2009(8): 242-243. (in Chinese).