Differential Hydrological Grey Self-Memory Model in Simulation and Prediction of Runoff

Abstract:

Based on the traditional differential hydrological grey-model, this paper applied the annual/seasonal index to data pre-processing of precipitation and runoff and established the Differential Hydrological Grey Self-memory Model with the self-memory theory. The model was used to simulate and predict the runoff in different time scales. The results showed that:1The model performed much better in year time scale with achieving precision requirement of hydrological model;2the relative deviation was decreased to 0.6%, the correlation coefficient and Nash-Sutcliffe were raised to 0.744 and 0.704 respectively with the pre-processing data of precipitation and runoff;3the model was applicable to predicting the runoff especially in the year time scale. The structure model was simple and easy to be calculated, nevertheless, the factors of evaporation, land-use and human activity should be taken into consideration so that the model can be more perfect. Keywords: Grey model; self-memory theory; annual/seasonal index; runoff

• Periodical: Advanced Materials Research (Volumes 955-959)
• Pages: 3238-3244
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.955-959.3238
• Online since: June 2014
• Authors: Zhi Yong Yang, Zhe Yuan*, Deng Hua Yan, Jun Yin
• Keywords: Annual/Seasonal Index, Grey Model, Runoff, Self-Memory Theory

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