Modeling of Cellular Automata Marcov Chain for Land Use Change Prediction in Nagan Raya Regency

Abstract:

Agricultural land has a strategic role and function for the agrarian society of Indonesia. This is because many Indonesians depend on the agricultural sector for their livelihoods. In sustainable agricultural development land is the most important natural resource and changes in land use are inevitable because the amount does not increase but the needs always increase. This land use change also occurs in Aceh Province, especially in Nagan Raya District. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze and predict land changes in order to evaluate the suitability of land management, land use planning, reduce potential conflicts in use, and land utilization for the common good in the future. Cellular Automata-Marcov Chain Algorithm (CA-MC) is one way that can be applied to overcome the problem of land use change in Nagan Raya Regency. Land use conversion significantly impacted primary dry land, particularly through plantation expansion. Spatiotemporal analysis using CA-MC models revealed significant shifts in land cover between 2000 and 2040. Dryland forests decreased, while plantation land, settlements, open land, and water bodies increased. The CA-MC model effectively simulated these changes, providing valuable insights for urban planning and management.

• Periodical: Construction Technologies and Architecture (Volume 18)
• Pages: 143-154
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/p-IZt6M5
• Online since: June 2025
• Authors: Fachruddin Fachruddin, Sanusi Sanusi*, Andi Yusra, Rivansyah Suhendra, Muhammad Usman, Meylis Safriani
• Keywords: Cellular Automata, Geographic Information System, Land Change Modeling, Marcov Chain, Nagan Raya Regency

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