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Specific System Random Load Forecasts for Nigerian 330 kV 38-Bus Transmission Grid

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Abstract:

This study presents random load forecasts for the Nigerian 330 kV 38-bus transmission grid using a complex trend analysis technique. By considering randomness of monthly load peaks and normal distribution function, yearly load mean and confidence intervals were predicted for the transmission buses from an obtained 10-year historical load population. Also using the proposed algorithm of the mentioned technique, long-term random load forecasts for the transmission system were obtained. The obtained forecasts were compared with results from an earlier prediction model created for the same grid, which comprises a Monte Carlo technique that considers the location’s predominant control variables as population and GDP growth; the maximum obtainable error was 24%. The obtained results of forecasts and comparison are applicable for determining effective transmission system planning policy in Nigeria for the forecast period.

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International Journal of Engineering Research in Africa Vol. 27

Info:

Periodical:

International Journal of Engineering Research in Africa (Volume 27)

Pages:

87-94

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/JERA.27.87

Citation:

Cite this paper

Online since:

December 2016

Authors:

Adegoke Oladipo Melodi*, Olatunji M. Adeyanju

Keywords:

Forecast, Nigeria, Operation, Planning, Random Load, Transmission

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Creative Commons CC BY 4.0

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* - Corresponding Author

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