Prediction on New Ship Orders on the Basis of Combination Model

Si Qin Yu; Yi Ye Xiang; Yuan Tao Jiang

doi:10.4028/www.scientific.net/AEF.6-7.1226

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HomeAdvanced Engineering ForumAdvanced Engineering Forum Vols. 6-7Prediction on New Ship Orders on the Basis of...

Prediction on New Ship Orders on the Basis of Combination Model

Abstract:

When the new ship orders decline deeply and the shipbuilding capability is releasing quickly, how to guarantee the accuracy of prediction of new ship orders becomes the main target for shipbuilding corporate. This paper aims to predict the future demand of new ship with the help of combination forecast model that consist of grey system, support vector machine and artificial neural network. The result showed that combination forecast method is better than single usage of other three methods. The prediction result of new ship orders could provide some useful reference for the development of the shipbuilding industry.

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Periodical:

Advanced Engineering Forum (Volumes 6-7)

Pages:

1226-1230

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AEF.6-7.1226

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Online since:

September 2012

Authors:

Si Qin Yu, Yi Ye Xiang, Yuan Tao Jiang

Keywords:

Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Combination Forecast, Grey System, New Ship Orders, Support Vector Machine (SVM)

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Creative Commons CC BY 4.0

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References

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