A Review on Long-Term Evaluation of Occurrence Probability for Subduction-Zone Earthquakes in Eastern Japan

Abstract:

Evaluation approach of occurrence probability for subduction-zone earthquakes adopted in “National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan” is reviewed, especially for the area of the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake (2011 Tohoku Earthquake in short). One problem is pointed that the occurrence probability of such a large earthquake cannot be predicted just from seismicity in a region small like Miyagi-ken-Oki area or southern Sanriku-Oki. The whole subduction zone in eastern Japan is suggested to be taken into account with the interaction between the energy released in quakes. Finally, a simple test to predict the next large earthquake in the subduction-zone by means of Artificial Neural Network is presented, and the result for the years of 2008-2018 shows there may be an earthquake with magnitude up to 8.8 in the zone.

• Periodical: Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volumes 166-169)
• Pages: 2190-2196
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.166-169.2190
• Online since: May 2012
• Authors: Zheng Ru Tao, Xia Xin Tao, Wei Jiang
• Keywords: 2011 Off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Brown Passage Time Model, Occurrence Probability, Poisson Model, Subduction-Zone Earthquake

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