The Prediction of Grain Output in Jiangsu Province Based on the Grey Markov Methord

Qing Yuan Zhou; Jian Jian Luo

doi:10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.29-32.1162

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A Dynamic Programming Model of the Coordination between Forest and Socio-Economy
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Improvement to the Expected Discounted Penalty Function for a Classical Risk Model with a Threshold Dividend Strategy
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The Prediction of Grain Output in Jiangsu Province Based on the Grey Markov Methord
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HomeApplied Mechanics and MaterialsApplied Mechanics and Materials Vols. 29-32The Prediction of Grain Output in Jiangsu Province...

The Prediction of Grain Output in Jiangsu Province Based on the Grey Markov Methord

Abstract:

Since Grain yield prediction is significant for regulating grain prices, the research on the accurate prediction of grain output has great value. According to the grain output of JiangSu province over the years, the grain output can be predicted by adopting the grey Markov method, and the outcome has shown that there is a great error between the grain prediction by only using the grey prediction model and the practical output. The error rate between the grain prediction of 2009 and the actual output is -4.25%, which can be improved into 1.67% after being amended by Markov, and accuracy is increased by 63.05%. The precision of prediction results, after being revised by Markov, can meet the practical requirements.

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Periodical:

Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volumes 29-32)

Pages:

1162-1167

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.29-32.1162

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Online since:

August 2010

Authors:

Qing Yuan Zhou, Jian Jian Luo

Keywords:

Grain Output, Gray Theory, Markov Chain (MC)

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