Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Based on Time Series-State Transition Method

Abstract:

Wind speed forecasting is of great significance to the improvement of grid stability and the reduction of operating cost. Because of the high volatility of wind speed, the accuracy of current forecasting methods have yet to be improved. This paper established a time series-state transition model to solve this problem, which uses state transition to revise the results of time series forecasting. The improvement in accuracy is proved by the analysis of a practical example.

• Periodical: Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volumes 291-294)
• Pages: 2298-2301
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.291-294.2298
• Online since: February 2013
• Authors: Jie Ji, Yong Tao Shen, Meng Si Tan, Li Ning Wu, Jian Hua Zhang, Zong Qi Liu
• Keywords: Error, State Transition, Time Series, Time Series-State Transition, Wind Speed Forecasting

References

[1] M. Alexiadis, P. Dokopoulos, H. Sahsamanoglou, et al.: Solar Energy Vol. 63(1998), pp.61-68.

[2] EA. Bossanyi: Wind Engineering Vol. 9(1985), pp.1-8.

[3] FAN Gao-feng, WANG Wei-sheng, LIU Chun, et al: Proceedings of the CSEE Vol. 28(2008), pp.118-123.

[4] Kamal L, Jafri Y Z: Solar Energy Vol. 61(1997), pp.23-32.

[5] XU Guo-hui, YU Chun-lin: Journal of Guangzhou University (Natural Science Edition) Vol. 2(2003), pp.556-559.

[6] H. Nfaoui, H. Essiarab, A.A. M: Renewable Energy Vol. 29 (2004), pp.1407-1418.

[7] LI Qing-fu, HU Qun-fang, ZHANG Peng: IEEE International Conference on GSIS (2007), pp.707-711.

[8] LIU Ci-hua, in: Random Process and Its Application (third edition), Higher Education Press (2004).

[9] DENG Hong-xing, FAN Ying: Techniques and Methods Vol. 30(2011), pp.112-125.

[10] LIU Ju-yan: Short-term Wind Speed Forecasting Based on Data Mining Technology, Xi'an Electronic and Engineering University, 2010. 6. 3.