Study on Box-Jenkins Method of Prediction of Chloride Concentration of Marine Concrete Structures

Abstract:

The paper introduces life prediction models and existing questions of marine concrete structures exposed to chloride environment; Theory of Box-Jenkins time series prediction method is put forward to analyze the change law of chloride concentration of reinforcemnet surface of marine concrete structures along with time; Stationary test, model identification and parameter estimate are introduced; Modeling process and best model identification are discussed by means of analyzing laws of chloride concentration changing with time, and predicts using the best model. Analysis results show that the prediction model built by Box-Jenkins method has simple form and high prediction accuracy. Whats more, future chloride concentration can be well predicted by history values without determining specific values of durability parameters.This is a new method of life prediction of marine concrete structures.

• Periodical: Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volumes 351-352)
• Pages: 1629-1636
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.351-352.1629
• Online since: August 2013
• Authors: Er Ju Li*, Xin Gang Zhou
• Keywords: Box-Jenkins Method, Chloride Concentration, Life Prediction, Marine Concrete Structures

References

[1] Dura Crete: General Guidelines for Durability Design and Redesign[S]. The European Union-Brite Eu Ram III, Project No. BE95-1347: Probabilistic Performance Based Durability Design of Concrete Structures, Document R15, Feb. (2000).

[2] Fib Bulletin No. 34, Model Code for Service Life Design[S]. FIB, (2006).

[3] CCES01-2004 Guide to Durability Design and Construction of Concrete Structures [S]. Beijing: China Architecture and Building Press, 2005. (In Chinese).

[4] Yungming Sun, Mingte Liang, Tapeng Chang: Applied Mathematical Modeling. Vol. 36(2012), p.1114.

[5] China Communications Construction Co. Tsinghua university. Technical Research of 120 year's Durability Service Life Design of Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge Based on Reliability[R]. Beijing: 2009. (In Chinese).

[6] Xingang Zhou. Study on Durability Design Method and Parameter Values of Marine Concrete Structures [D]. College of Civil Engineering of Tsinghua University, 2012. 12. (In Chinese).

[7] Yun Zhao: Concrete. Vol. 15(2004), p.3(In Chinese).

[8] CHLORTEST. Resistance of Concrete to Chloride Ingress From Laboratory Tests to Infield Performance[R], Sweden: (2006).

[9] T. J. Da Silva , P. Roca. Reliability Updating of Deteriorating Concrete Floor Slabs.

[10] Shukui Liu, Ziyan Wu, Hui Han et al: Engineering Mechanics. Vol. 28(2011), p.126(In Chinese).

[11] Xiaopeng Wang, Guangchao Cao, Shengxi Ding: Application of Statistics and Management. Vol. 27(2008), p.565(In Chinese).

[12] Jehng-Jung Kao, Shang-Shuang Huang. Forecasts Usinq Neural Network versus Box-Jenkins Methodoloqy for Ambient Air Quality Monitoring Data [J]. Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association, 2000, 50(2).

DOI: 10.1080/10473289.2000.10463997

[13] Tie-Mei Gao. Econometric Analysis and Modeling[M]. Beijing: Tsinghua University press, 2006. (In Chinese).

[14] Ying Liu: Silicon Valley. Vol. 21(2010), p.95(In Chinese).

[15] Guo-Qiang Chen, Jun-Wei Zhao, Jun-Jie Huang et al: Tool Technology. Vol. 39(2005), p.39(In Chinese).