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6% According to the requirements of the three different IRR aforementioned, decision maker may allow 20 or 21 years as the concession period. From Table 2, decision maker may allow 20 or 21 years as the concession period in this scenario. The cumulative probability of realizing the three different IRR in 20 years is 60. 3%, 42. 4% and 25. 2% respectively, 21 years is 76. 5%, 60. 0% and 40. 9% respectively. Now change the price to 55 yuan, the simulation results is shown in Table 3. Decision maker may allow 19 years as the concession period. Table 3: The probability that the accumulated NPV of zero under three IRR cases (P=55 yuan) year 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 IRRmin=13.
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0493(1893)215[c6:cvnpya]2.0.co;2
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1% Scheme Evaluation. According to the simulation results above, select three BOT project schemes as shown in Table 4: Table 4: Concession schemes scheme 1 scheme 2 scheme 3 IRR 13% 13% 14% Tc[year] 19 20 21 P[yuan] 55 50 50 Decision maker set the feasible interval of objectives: IRR, concession period and price are [10%, 20%], [15, 25] and [45, 60] respectively. According to Eqs. 4-6, the target relative optimal degree and the relative optimal of matrix can be derived as Eq. 8: R=0. 30. 30. 40. 60. 50. 40. 330. 670. 67. (8) BOT project is mainly to achieve social benefit and to ensure that the investor to obtain the reasonable profit, so setting the weighting set to W= (0. 3, 0. 5, 0. 2). Perform the comprehensive evaluation by using Eq. 7: B= WR=(0. 3, 0. 5, 0. 2) R=0. 30. 30. 40. 60. 50. 40. 330. 670. 67=(0. 456, 0. 474, 0. 454) Finally, order the schemes and select the maximum utility function of the highest scheme 2. Conclusions As one of the core terms of the BOT project agreement, concession period is an important decision parameter. The main influence factors of the concession period defined in this paper, such as construction cost, construction period, operation cost, operating income and the discount rate are as random variables, simulating the NPV of the project income in Monte Carlo method with the probability distribution of the actual situation. According to the requirement that IRRmin cumulative probability should be relative high, IRRexp cumulative probability should be at a reasonable level and IRRmax cumulative probability should be relatively low. We have to select a reasonable concession period. The utility of the stakeholders of the BOT project is different due to different schemes. As a result, this paper adopts multi-objective fuzzy evaluation method to choose the optimization scheme from the simulation results, in order to get the scheme with maximized balanced comprehensive utility, so as to improve the rationality of the BOT project concession period decision. Because the BOT project is complex and involves many other factors, this paper has to further perfect the influence factors of concession period. At the same time, the franchise agreement of the BOT project also involves other evaluation factors. Apart from discussing the comparison and selection of the concession period schemes with multi-objective equilibrium condition, and the model also needs further deepen consideration.
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