Population Spatial Migration Tendency Forecasting with Grey Model and Fourier Series

Abstract:

Population spatial migration tendency forecasting is very important for research of spatial demography. Statistical and artificial intelligence (soft computing) based approaches are too complex to be used for time series prediction. This paper presents Fourier series grey model (FGM) integrating prediction method including grey model (GM) and Fourier series to predict the trend of Jiangsu Provinces migration in China. There are two parts of forecast. The first one is to build a grey model from a series of data, and the other uses the Fourier series to refine the residuals produced by the mentioned model. It is evident that the proposed approach gets the better result performance in studying the population migration. Satisfactory results have been obtained, which improve GM reached when only GM was used for the population spatial migration tendency forecasting.

• Periodical: Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volumes 409-410)
• Pages: 69-74
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.409-410.69
• Online since: September 2013
• Authors: Chang Jiang, Jun Wang, Yang Le, Ji Bin Shang, Yun Song Shi
• Keywords: Forecast, Fourier Series, Gravity Center Model, Grey Model, Spatial Demography

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