A Probabilistic Algorithm to Medium-Term Conflict Detection with Multi-Waypoints

Abstract:

To predict the potential conflict during the flight routes, a conflict detection approach based on multi-waypoints is presented. Aimed at the encounter geometry of two aircrafts with multi-waypoints, in order to simply the computational process, the aircrafts routes are divided into several straight conflict paths. Model along track kinematics equation of the aircraft by referencing to a classical conclusion that the along track error of the aircraft is normal distributed, consider an encounter between two aircrafts at the same flight level , construct an ellipse conflict region, by establishing a rectangular coordinate system represented aircraft position appropriately . First, propose a probability estimation algorithm of medium term conflict detection for cross routes at the same level, then analyze the relationship between the conflict probability and several factors based on various graphs. MATLAB result shows that the proposed algorithm is advanced in its simple calculation method, fast calculation speed and precise detection calculations.

• Periodical: Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volumes 411-414)
• Pages: 2763-2769
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.411-414.2763
• Online since: September 2013
• Authors: Jie Ning Wang, Bin Bin Wang, Yuan Di Zhao
• Keywords: Air Traffic Control, Medium Term Conflict Detection, Normal Distribution, Track Errors

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