Wind Power Prediction Model Based on the Combination of Gray Theory and Time Series Forecasting Methods

Abstract:

Accurate wind power predicting is helpful for the dispatch and safety operation of grid, so as to increase wind power penetration, Two representative prediction models, based on gray theory and time series forecasting method respectively, were selected, the farm measured data were input to the models and their own prediction results were obtained respectively. Finally, the prediction results of the combined model were compared with the two individual models, verifying the feasibility of the combined model to wind farm generation capacity forecast. It is concluded that the combined forecast model can predict more accurately than the individual forecast model.

• Periodical: Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volumes 448-453)
• Pages: 1721-1726
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.448-453.1721
• Online since: October 2013
• Authors: Xiao Juan Han, Xi Lin Zhang, Yue Yan Chen, Fang Yuan Meng
• Keywords: Combined Forecast, Gray Theory, Time Series Forecasting Method, Wind Farm

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