Short-Term Wind Power Prediction and Error Analysis

Abstract:

The prediction accuracy of wind power is important to the power system operation. Based on BP neural network used to forecast directly and time-series method used to forecast indirectly, the output wind power prediction of 4 hours in advance was studied in this paper. Simulation results showed that the performance of direct prediction is better, and the reason for that was analyzed in the paper. Finally, error analysis of prediction was researched. Comprehensive evaluation of prediction error which contains horizontal and longitudinal error evaluation was proposed.

• Periodical: Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volumes 448-453)
• Pages: 1851-1857
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.448-453.1851
• Online since: October 2013
• Authors: Rui Ma, Ling Ling Wang, Shu Ju Hu*
• Keywords: Direct Prediction, Error Analysis, Evaluation, Indirect Prediction, Wind Power Prediction

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