Time-Varying Characteristic Based Load Forecasting Method for Distribution Network with DGs

Abstract:

Middle-term and long-term load forecasting is important for planning of distribution network. With DG (distributed generation) integrated into network, the net load demand of HV/MV transformers become more complicated, load forecasting encounters greater challenge than ever. Uncertainty of wind and solar power has greatly influenced the load characteristics. A new load forecasting method for distribution network with DGs is proposed in this paper, which concerns time-varying characteristic of DG output power. Firstly, we get the conventional spatial load forecasting results. Then, using Monte Carlo simulation, we get the time-varying characteristic of DG. Lastly, superposing time-varying characteristics of conventional load and DGs, we can get the net-load forecasting result for distribution network.

• Periodical: Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volumes 448-453)
• Pages: 2434-2438
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.448-453.2434
• Online since: October 2013
• Authors: Ming Xin Zhao*, Yang Li, Hai Chen, Wei Liu, Pan Zhang
• Keywords: Distributed Generation (DG), Load Forecasting, Monte Carlo Simulation, Superposition Method, Time-Varying Characteristic

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