An Application of the Improved Autoregressive Method for Two Vessels Roll Motion Prediction

Abstract:

It is of great significance and value to predict the roll of two ships, especially when one is replenishing for the other or in some other conditions. Autoregressive time series analysis method (AR) with Recursive least squares (RLS) theory is the mainstream currently and the effectiveness for the prediction of the motion attitudes have been fully validated. However, there are some differences between the prediction for the motion of two vessels and for that of one. The hydrodynamic interactions between two ships should be taken into consideration and be reflected in the application of the method. In order to solve this issue, this work firstly proposed a double ships autoregressive (DAR) method, which can determine the orders and the parameters of model in real-time with consideration of the interference between two ships and the DAR method was applied to forecast the roll motion between two ships. The simulative results of DAR method show the validity and veracity compared to real value and the advancement compared to the autoregressive (AR) method for single ship motion prediction.

• Periodical: Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volumes 488-489)
• Pages: 881-885
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.488-489.881
• Online since: January 2014
• Authors: He Cheng Gao*, Zhuang Lin, Dong Mei Yang, Ping Li, Zhi Qun Guo
• Keywords: Double Ships Autoregressive Method (DAR), Hydrodynamics Interference, Real-Time, Recursive Least Square (RLS), Two Ships Roll Motion Prediction

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