Markov Modified Exponential Smoothing Forecast of Highway Passenger Volume

Xian Wei Zhao

doi:10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.556-562.3714

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HomeApplied Mechanics and MaterialsApplied Mechanics and Materials Vols. 556-562Markov Modified Exponential Smoothing Forecast of...

Markov Modified Exponential Smoothing Forecast of Highway Passenger Volume

Abstract:

To ensure the highway passenger transport policy and the allocation of scientific nature, the application of exponential smoothing method to analyze the highway passenger volume from 2000 to 2009,calculated once, twice and three times smoothness index and smoothing coefficient, and ultimately determine the three smoothing prediction model; according to the forecast model ,and calculate the highway passenger volume in the region from 2010 to 2014, compared with the actual highway passenger volume, the relative error values respectively is 3.243% and 4.729%, and both less than 5%, which can meet the accuracy requirements for the statistical confidence of 95%,the model is more in line with the actual situation, higher effectiveness.

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Periodical:

Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volumes 556-562)

Pages:

3714-3721

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.556-562.3714

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Online since:

May 2014

Authors:

Xian Wei Zhao*

Keywords:

Exponential Smoothing, Highway Passenger Volume, Three Smoothness Index, Transportation Planning

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* - Corresponding Author

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