A Modified Exponential Smoothing Model for Forecasting Per Capita GDP in Yunnan Minority Area

Abstract:

Forecasting the per capita GDP of minority area is very important for the economic development for a society. This paper is to establish a model for prediction, and this model is based on the exponential smoothing (ES). First of all, the result of exponential smoothing model (ESM) is analyzed, and the accuracy of it is rather low. Then, we modified the exponential smoothing model and use the new model to predict again, with the average error being only 2.88%. The results show that the modified exponential smoothing model (MESM) is effective. The innovation of this paper is that the model is built based on a series of data collected from eight places, while normally a model is built based on data from one place.

• Periodical: Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volumes 599-601)
• Pages: 2074-2078
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.599-601.2074
• Online since: August 2014
• Authors: Zhi Sheng Dong*, Gu Sheng Zhu
• Keywords: Exponential Smoothing Model, Forecast, Modified, Yunnan National Minority Area

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