Forecasting Agricultural Bio-Energy Potential of Beijing

Abstract:

Energy is an irreplaceable factor for the socio-economic development of a national or regional. Firstly, the definition, advantages and disadvantages as well as application scope of several energy forecasting methods are presented. Secondly, according to the characteristics of biomass and the worldwide studies, the GM (1, 1) prediction mode, the exponential smoothing model and their weight combination model are selected to predict the main crop yields of Beijing. The comparative analysis shows that the weight combination model has higher accuracy and reliability. Thirdly, using crop yields data of Beijing from 2001 to 2012 establish weight combination forecasting model. 2013 to 2022 in Beijing’s crop yields are predicted by the weight combination model and the available quantity is predicted by the rate of grass valley and availability coefficient. Finally, the converted into standard energy coefficient is introduced to assess agricultural biomass potential. All provides a theoretical basis for the government to make appropriate energy policy.

• Periodical: Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volumes 641-642)
• Pages: 956-960
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.641-642.956
• Online since: September 2014
• Authors: Rui Pu Ma, Jing Liu
• Keywords: Bio-Energy, Exponential Smoothing Model, Forecasting, Gm Prediction Mode

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DOI: 10.1016/0038-0121(81)90049-5