Spatial Load Forecasting Based on Load Forecasting Reliability

Abstract:

A spatial load forecasting method based on reliability of load forecasting is proposed. It calculates the correlation of wave comprehensive index, variance, maximum predictable ability of each power supply small area’s historical load data by using the analysis theory of grey degree based on the analysis of load forecasting error last target year. The weight of each factor effected on prediction outcomes according to the gray correlation degree is determined, then the load forecasting reliability model of each power supply area is constructed. Finally, by using the adjustment role of load forecasting reliability, the load of target year is forecasted. Actual example shows that the spatial load forecasting method based on reliability of load forecasting is correct and effective.

• Periodical: Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volumes 672-674)
• Pages: 1075-1080
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.672-674.1075
• Online since: October 2014
• Authors: Bai Xiao*, Hao Wang, Gang Mu
• Keywords: Grey Correlation Degree, Reliability of Load Forecasting, Spatial Load Forecasting (SLF)

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