Quantitative Analysis of Blowout Risk in Production Platform: A Fuzzy Fault Tree Approach

Bao Zhan Liu; Wen Pu Wei; Meng Lan Duan; Wei An; Yan Lü

doi:10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.675-677.1569

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HomeApplied Mechanics and MaterialsApplied Mechanics and Materials Vols. 675-677Quantitative Analysis of Blowout Risk in...

Quantitative Analysis of Blowout Risk in Production Platform: A Fuzzy Fault Tree Approach

Abstract:

Fault tree approach is a widely used for importance and risk assessment. This paper analyses the blowout risk in production platform by a fuzzy fault tree method. This method is appropriate for the situation that lack or incompleteness of data. The judgements from experts can be quantified by using this framework. Analysis process is introduced. It establishes a fault tree including a top event and 13 basic events. The top event is blowout. Through analysis, 15 minimum cut sets are obtained and the fuzzy failure probability and single definite probability values are calculated. Finally, the probability of blowout risk in production platform is 5.67×10^-4.

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Periodical:

Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volumes 675-677)

Pages:

1569-1574

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.675-677.1569

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Online since:

October 2014

Authors:

Bao Zhan Liu*, Wen Pu Wei, Meng Lan Duan, Wei An, Yan Lü

Keywords:

Blowout, Fuzzy Fault Tree, Production Platform

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* - Corresponding Author

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