GM (1,1) Model Application in Power Load Forecasting Based on Sliding Average Method

Abstract:

The grey prediction method is simple in principle, the sample size was small and simple, suitable for load forecasting.But grey model has some limitations, the data dispersion degree is more bigger,the gray is also more bigger, it will reduce the accuracy of prediction.This paper adopts the moving average method to improve the raw data , so as to increase the data weights, while avoiding predicted value excessive volatility .Through a city of China's power load is instantiated to verify, and Then analyze the results, found that after the GM (1,1) model improved by moving average method can effectively improve the accuracy of load forecasting.

• Periodical: Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volumes 687-691)
• Pages: 1300-1303
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.687-691.1300
• Online since: November 2014
• Authors: Li Zhi Song*
• Keywords: Grey Prediction, Load Forecasting, Prediction Accuracy, Sliding Average Method

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