Scenario Analysis Method and its Application in Medium- and Long-Term Planning of Aviation Safety Development

Xu Sheng Gan; Jin Liang Chen; Hai Tao Zhao

doi:10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.687-691.5036

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HomeApplied Mechanics and MaterialsApplied Mechanics and Materials Vols. 687-691Scenario Analysis Method and its Application in...

Scenario Analysis Method and its Application in Medium- and Long-Term Planning of Aviation Safety Development

Abstract:

In order to formulate the medium-and long-term planning of aviation safety development, a qualitative prediction and analysis method known as scenario analysis method is introduced in the field of safety strategic planning. An actual example on an airline safety development in the future 5 years shows that the proposed qualitative prediction and analysis method has a good feasibility and effectiveness.

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Periodical:

Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volumes 687-691)

Pages:

5036-5039

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.687-691.5036

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Online since:

November 2014

Authors:

Xu Sheng Gan, Jin Liang Chen, Hai Tao Zhao

Keywords:

Aviation Safety, Initial Probability, Scenario Analysis, Simulative Probability

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References

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