Comparison of Two Methods on Population Prediction in Small Town Planning

Abstract:

Accurate population prediction has fundamental importance in small town planning. In this paper, two empirical prediction models, integrated growth rate and regression analysis, have been developed with demographic data of 2000-2005 in Gaotang county, Shandong province. The two models were then applied to predict the population in 2008, and their results were compared with the actual population, respectively, to evaluate the modeling accuracy. The results showed that both methods were capable of providing accurate population prediction; however, the accuracy of the integrated growth rate was a little higher than that of regression analysis in terms of their differences from the actual population in 2008.

• Periodical: Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volumes 71-78)
• Pages: 3845-3848
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.71-78.3845
• Online since: July 2011
• Authors: Feng Xia Gu, Wen Bao Liu
• Keywords: Integrated Growth Rate, Population Prediction, Regression Analysis, Small Town Planning

References

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