Comparison of Two Methods on Population Prediction in Small Town Planning
Accurate population prediction has fundamental importance in small town planning. In this paper, two empirical prediction models, integrated growth rate and regression analysis, have been developed with demographic data of 2000-2005 in Gaotang county, Shandong province. The two models were then applied to predict the population in 2008, and their results were compared with the actual population, respectively, to evaluate the modeling accuracy. The results showed that both methods were capable of providing accurate population prediction; however, the accuracy of the integrated growth rate was a little higher than that of regression analysis in terms of their differences from the actual population in 2008.
Dongye Sun, Wen-Pei Sung and Ran Chen
F. X. Gu and W. B. Liu, "Comparison of Two Methods on Population Prediction in Small Town Planning", Applied Mechanics and Materials, Vols. 71-78, pp. 3845-3848, 2011