Evaluating Travel Time Reliability Based on Fuzzy Logic

Abstract:

Travel time reliability, as a measure of performance, is attracting more and more attention because unreliable transportation information hinders travelers’ decision making and creates difficulties for authorities to manage network operations. Since travel time reliability is closely related to the stochastic properties of the day-to-day travel time distribution, several statistical measures have been proposed, including standard deviation, coefficient of variation, buffer index, misery index and so on. Each of these measures is derived from travel time distribution but captures only one or two characteristics of travel time. In this paper, an effort is made to evaluate travel time reliability incorporating as many characteristics of travel time as possible based on fuzzy logic. The basic rules are: (1) the larger the variance is, the more unreliable the travel time is; (2) the larger the travel times of unlucky travelers are, the more unreliable the travel time is; (3) the larger the distribution skews to the left, the more unreliable the travel time is. The proposed methodology has been tested and analyzed with field data.

• Periodical: Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volumes 97-98)
• Pages: 952-955
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.97-98.952
• Online since: September 2011
• Authors: Xiong Fei Zhang, Rui Min Li, Min Liu, Qi Xin Shi
• Keywords: Fuzzy Logic, Reliability, Travel Time, Travel Time Distribution

References

[1] Ebeling, C.E., "Introduction to Reliability and Maintainability Engineering", McGraw-Hill Companies Inc., 1997.

[2] Information on http://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/publications/tt_reliability/brochure/

[3] Lomax, T., Schrank, D., Turner, S., Margiotta, R., Selecting travel reliability measures. Texas Transportation Institute and Cambridge Systematics Inc., (2003)

[4] J. W. C. van Lint and H. J. van Zuylen, Monitoring and Predicting Freeway Travel Time Reliability Using Width and Skew of Day-to-Day Travel Time Distribution, Transportation Research Record 1917, 2005, p.54–62.

DOI: 10.1177/0361198105191700107

[5] J. W. C. van Lint and H. J. van Zuylen, H. Tu, Travel time unreliability on freeways: why measures based on variance tell only half the story. Transprotation Research Part A, 2008, 42: 258-277.

DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2007.08.008

[6] P. Rafferty, Practical Benefits Analysis of Travel Time Reliability from Automated Detection, Transportation Research Record 2115, 2009, p.119–126.

DOI: 10.3141/2115-15

[7] A. Higatani, T. Kitazawa, J. Tanabe, Y. Suga, R. Sekhar and Y. Asakura, Empirical Analysis of Travel Time Reliability Measures in Hanshin Expressway Network, Journal of Intelligent Transportation Systems, 2009, 13(1):28–38.

DOI: 10.1080/15472450802644454

[8] J. W. C. van Lint, N. J. van der Zijpp, Improving a travel time estimation algorithm by using dual loop detectors. Transportation Research Record 1855, 2003, 41–48.

DOI: 10.3141/1855-05