The Forecasting Track of Power Grid Operation State Based on Risk Assessment

Abstract:

As the interconnected power grid becomes increasingly complicated and external environment is changeable, the difficulty of power grid dispatching is increased. Thus, the forecasting track of power grid operation state based on risk assessment can be used to predict the operation trend of power grid state and provide a reference for real-time operation state and guide power grid dispatching. Based on overall power grid risk index system, the operation trend for a period in the future is predicted to diagnose the state of power grid by using fuzzy inference, fuzzy clustering and AHP. In this paper, Ningxia Power Grid is simulated as an example to describe the forecasting track of its operation state in the next 100 minutes. The results present that the track can be used to analyze the causes, which increase or decrease the risk degree of overall power grid, then major leading factors are specifically analyzed. And the track can be also used as guidance for dispatching operators to take measures. Furthermore, the track is proved to be reasonable.

• Periodical: Advanced Materials Research (Volumes 1008-1009)
• Pages: 454-460
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.1008-1009.454
• Online since: August 2014
• Authors: Qi Rui Chen*, Da Hai You, Cheng Long, Yang Zou, Jin Hu, Wei Hua Chen, Peng Xu, Ling Ling Pan
• Keywords: Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Forecasting Track, Fuzzy Clustering, Fuzzy Inference, Risk Degree of Overall Power Grid

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