Advanced Materials Research Vol. 1046

Abstract: With the development of modern power systems, the accuracy requirement for load forecasting is getting higher and higher. In this paper, the Wilcoxon rank sum test as a new mathematical method to test error, is applied to the neural network based short-term load forecasting model. The actual historical load data and the associated weather conditions factors to be considered, based on MATLAB neural network toolbox, The method to construct three different neural network model, the power load in Yichang area in 2009 was forecasted and the simulation of short-term. The simulation results show：Wilcoxon rank sum test algorithms in neural network model, not only can correctly predict，relative to the average relative error, in the statistical methods and statistical laws - especially in the face of large amounts of data - through a random sample to show a certain advantage in the overall distribution.

Abstract: How to implement the life-cycle management of water conservancy and hydro power project cost effectively, and how to distinguish the influence degree of different factors on project cost stage management. This is a key problem in project cost control. In this paper, based on the influence of each factor on the overall evaluation goal influence, FAHP is applied to set up Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model. Aiming at the variability characteristics of factors in each stage, the information entropy is used to determine the objective weight in the model, in combination with AHP the subjective weights to determine the weight.

Abstract: Spatial-Temporal structure and trend of annual/flood season precipitation over the Taihu Basin, which is one of the most developed regions in China, were analyzed in this paper, based on the dataset during 1951-2006. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was employed to detect the trend, while the EOF and REOF methods were used to analyze the structure. The result showed that the annual rainfall distribution is decreased from southwest Zhexi district to northeast Wuchengxiyu and Yangchengdianmao districts, while the summer distribution is decreased from southwest to southeast Hangjiahu and Pudong distircts. The annual/flood season average precipitation of Taihu basin was on a downward trend (not significant) during 1951-2006. There was a significant decline trend in the Zhexi District, and the most significant downward trend appears in the Moganshan station, the Mann-Kendall slope of which is 6.5mm/a. Annual precipitation space distribution of Taihu basin is mainly characterized in two forms: north-south opposite distribution and east-west opposite distribution, both of the maximum rainfall appeared at Tianmu Mountain in the west of Zhejiang, and the minimum appeared at Danyang/Shanghai.