The Insulator’s Pollution Raining Flashover Forecast under GARCH-Based Forecast of Rainstorm Disasters1
In this paper,it proposes insulator flashover probability prediction model based on Markov chain and ARMA-GARCH. It provides a foundation for risk evaluation of rainstorm of power system. First,this model daily precipitation forecasting model which combined Markov chain with ARMA-GARCH based on self-dependency and time-varying of atmosphere factor; and then according to rainfall’s impact on insulator’s pollution raining flashover,the paper raises the probability prediction model of insulator flashover;Ultimately, we can predict the insulator flashover’s probability. Through Historical data of Hunan Grid to calculate the probability of flashover, and compares with the actual situation it shows that the method can achieve rapid, accurate prediction of power insulator flashover probability.
H. Wang, B.J. Zhang, X.Z. Liu, D.Z. Luo, S.B. Zhong
J. Yi et al., "The Insulator’s Pollution Raining Flashover Forecast under GARCH-Based Forecast of Rainstorm Disasters1", Advanced Materials Research, Vols. 143-144, pp. 566-570, 2011