Time-Dependent Reliability Analysis of Existing Tunnel Structures Based on the Bayesian Method

Abstract:

The reliability of the existing tunnel will decline gradually during service period due to various factors. This paper analyzes the structural reliability characteristics of the existing tunnel, the time-varying performance function of the reliability of the existing tunnel is proposed. The statistical value of lining action effect is calculated by using Monte Carlo Method combined with the finite element method .By analyzing the factors which influence the resistance degradation of tunnel lining, at the same time consider the time variability of the concrete strength deterioration and random changes of cross section size, the statistical parameters of each variable during follow-up service period is calculated by using Bayesian Method. The ultimate limit states equation of the concrete lining is established. The reliability index of the lining structures of an existing is calculated and the results show that the reliability decreases with the service time getting long.

• Periodical: Advanced Materials Research (Volumes 163-167)
• Pages: 3180-3185
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.163-167.3180
• Online since: December 2010
• Authors: Jian Guo
• Keywords: Bayesian Method, Existing Tunnel, Monte-Carlo Method (MC-Method), Reliability, SFEM

References

[1] Guiqin Li, Shengqiu Li, Industrial Structure Time-variant Reliability Theory and Its Application, Bei jing, Science press, (1990).

[2] Shiting Jing, Yongquan Zhu, Xiangyu Song. Tunnel Structure Reliability. (Beijing, China Railway Publishing House, 2002).

[3] Jiankang Cheng, Jianfang Zhu: submitted to Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering, 2005 (3).

[4] Yashiro, Bruce R. Ellingwood: submitted to Journal of Structural Engineering , ASCE, 1994(120).

[5] Yashiro, Bruce R. Ellingwood. : submitted to Structural Safety, 1993(12).

[6] Dietao, Niu Qinlin Wng: submitted to Journal of Industrial Buildings, 1995（25）.

[7] Jun-zhi Zhang, Xiao-zu Su : submitted to Journal of Industrial Buildings, 2005, 35(3). ).

[8] Michael P. Enright, Dan M. Frangopol: submitted to Journal of Structural Engineering, ASCE, (1997).

[9] Mi Zhang, Yongqin Sheng : submitted to Journal of Civil Engineering (1993).

[10] Ji-tao Yao. Service Structure Reliability Analysis Method[D]. Dalian, Dalian University of Technology, (1996).

[11] Zhongsheng Tan. Tunnel Support Structural System Reliability Theory Research and Engineering Application [D]. Chengdun, Southwest Jiaotong University, (1998).