Using Grey Prediction Theory to Forecast Expenditure for Science & Technology Activities in China

Abstract:

Based on the statistical data during the period from 2003 to 2008 released by National Bureau of Statistics of China, this paper aims to predict the amount of expenditure for science & technology activities in China by the usage of GM (1,1) model with the six items. The results of this empirical study is that the grey prediction theory can fit the expenditure for science & technology activities amount development trend precisely in China. The accuracy of the prediction result is above 95% and corresponds with a distinction, which the grey theory can meet expectations with small samples or data. Research results show that this GM (1,1) model established in this paper could provide valuable information for policy makers in their efforts to make appropriate technological policies.

• Periodical: Advanced Materials Research (Volume 187)
• Pages: 504-509
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.187.504
• Online since: February 2011
• Authors: Wu Wei Li
• Keywords: Expenditure for Science Activity, Expenditure for Technology Activity, GM(1,1) Method, Gray Theory

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