The carbon emissions from China’s MSW management are evaluated with the mass balance model. According to the MSW generation and treatment trends, the future carbon emission and sink are also predicted. The results show that the net equivalent CO2 emission is maintaining at about 150 million tons at recent years, although the MSW generation is growing slowly. MSW incineration for energy production and Landfill gas utilization in landfill sites are the main ways of carbon emission reduction. China’s MSW generation will reach 166 million tons, while the equivalent CO2 emission will decease to 144 million tons due to more energy recovery from MSW treatment.