Study and Application of the Mid-Long Term Energy early Warning System Based on SGM Model

Abstract:

With the rapid economic development and improvement of the people’s living standard, the energy demand is increasing very fast in China. The national comprehensive energy early warning system is studied is this paper to adapt to the fundamental task of energy construction in China. On the energy demand forecast based on SGM model, the compreshensive energy warning system is built in this paper and put into the mid-long term enrgy early warning in China. For the BaU scenario, the comprehensive indices are dangerous both in 2020 and 2030; for the SD scenario, the comprehensive indices are attentive both in 2020 and 2030. So it can be concluded that the energy saving and sustainable development should be insisted to cope with the energy problems in China.

• Periodical: Advanced Materials Research (Volumes 512-515)
• Pages: 2519-2525
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.512-515.2519
• Online since: May 2012
• Authors: Yi Xiang Deng, Si Qiang Wang
• Keywords: Energy Early Warning, Forecast, Middel-Long Term

References

[1] China Statistical Bureau, China Statistical Yearbook 2007, China Statistical Press, 2008 (in Chinese).

[2] IEA. Wold Energy Outlook 2007-Highlights on China and India [R]. OECD/IEA, 2008. http: /www. iea. org/Textbase/about/ copyright. asp: 175.

[3] Wenying Chen. The costs of mitigating carbon emissions in China: findings from China MARKAL-MACRO modeling [J]. Energy Policy, 2005, 33(7): 885-896(in Chinese).

DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2003.10.012

[4] Dadi Zhou, Yuan Guo, Yingyi Shi, et al. Developing Countries & Global Climate Change: Electric Power Options in China [R]. Virginia: Pwe Center on Global Climate Change, 2000(in Chinese).

[5] Wenying Chen, Zongxin Wu, Jiankun He, Pengfei Gao, Shaofeng Xu. Carbon emission control strategies for China: A comparative study with partial and general equilibrium versions of the China MARKAL model [J]. Energy, 2007, 32(1): 59-72(in Chinese).

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2006.01.018

[6] Jae Edmonds, Hugh Pitcher, Ron Sands, Second Generation Model 2004: An Overview, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.

[7] Ronald D. Sands. Dynamics of carbon abatement in the Second Generation Model [J]. Energy Economics, 2004, 26(4): 721-738.

DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2004.04.034

[8] Jizhun Li, Kejun Jiang. Effect analysis and policy analysis of high petroleum price based on IPAC-SGM model [J]. China Price, 2007. 04: 29-31(in Chinese).

[9] Yuzuru Matsuoka, Mikiko Kainuma, Tsuneyuki Morita. Scenario analysis of global warming using the Asian Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) [J]. Energy Policy, 1995, 23(4-5): 357-371.

DOI: 10.1016/0301-4215(95)90160-9

[10] Ram M. Shrestha, Sunil Malla, Migara H. Liyanage. Scenario-based analyses of energy system development and its environmental implications in Thailand [J]. Energy Policy, 2007, 35(6): 3179-3193.

DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2006.11.007

[11] Qiang Liu, Kejun Jiang, Xiulian Hu. Framework design of the energy security indices system.

[12] Chunhao Chi, Yongliang Li. Primary study of the energy security effect factors and measurment.

[13] Limao Wang. Influential factors and index system for appraising resources security [J]. Journal of Natural Resources , 2002, 17(4): 401-408(in Chinese).

[14] Siqiang Wang, Study and application of the energy early warning system. PhD thesis, Beijing Jiaotong University, 2008(in Chinese).

[15] International energy agency, World energy outlook, OECD/IEA, (2007).