A Simplified Computational Method for Overall Risk Probability in Probabilistic Health Risk Assessments of Environmental Pollutants

Abstract:

In the assessment of health risks of environmental pollutants, both conventional methods and probabilistic methods based on the use of cumulative probability plots have been used. Probabilistic risk assessment has the advantage that the statistical distributions of both the exposure data set and the adverse effect data set are taken into account in risk characterization. In addition, the method of overall risk probability (ORP) has been used to quantify the overall risk probability of adverse effects for the population samples. The disadvantage is that many more data points are needed to obtain the cumulative probability plots and the calculation of the ORP from the probability plots is more complicated. In this paper, a simplified computational method for the estimation of the ORP was developed. In this method, an overall risk factor (ORF), as an estimated value of the ORP value, was obtained from the mid-point of an exposure exceedence curve. The ORF can also be obtained from an inversed cumulative probability plot of the exposure curve, thus eliminating the needs for the use of the exposure exceedence curve and the numerical integration of the exceedence curve in ORP computation. The use of ORF method was illustrated with a practical example and the results indicated that the values of the ORF and ORP are about the same.

• Periodical: Advanced Materials Research (Volumes 550-553)
• Pages: 2076-2080
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.550-553.2076
• Online since: July 2012
• Authors: Wen Mei Zhang, Qi Ming J. Yu, Qi Ming Cao, Des W. Connell
• Keywords: Health Risk Assessment, Overall Risk Factor, Overall Risk Probability, Probabilistic Risk Characterization

References

[1] Bosgra S, van der Voet H, Boon P, Muller AK, Bos P, Slob W (2007) An integrated framework for probabilistic cumulative risk assessment of chemicals in food. Toxicology Letters 172:S100-S101

DOI: 10.1016/j.toxlet.2007.05.275

[2] Bosgra S, van der Voet H, Boon PE, Slob W (2009) An integrated probabilistic framework for cumulative risk assessment of common mechanism chemicals in food: An example with organophosphorus pesticides. Regulatory Toxicology Pharmacology 54(2):124-133

DOI: 10.1016/j.yrtph.2009.03.004

[3] Cao Q, Yu Q, Connell DW (2010) Fate simulation and risk assessment of endocrine disrupting chemicals in a reservoir receiving recycled wastewater. Science of the Total Environment 408 (24):6243-6250

DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2010.08.059

[4] Cao Q, Yu Q, Connell DW (2011) Health risk characterisation for environmental pollutants with a new concept of overall risk probability. Journal of Hazardous Materials 187 (1-3):480-487

DOI: 10.1016/j.jhazmat.2011.01.054

[5] Carriger JF, Rand GM (2008) Aquatic risk assessment of pesticides in surface waters in and adjacent to the Everglades and Biscayne National Parks: II. Probabilistic analyses. Ecotoxicology 17 (7):680-696

DOI: 10.1007/s10646-008-0231-z

[6] Hamidin N, Yu QJ, Connell DW (2008) Human health risk assessment of chlorinated disinfection by-products in drinking water using a probabilistic approach. Water Research 42 (13):3263-3274

DOI: 10.1016/j.watres.2008.02.029

[7] Jager T, den Hollander HA, van der Poel P, Rikken MGJ, Vermeire T (2001) Probabilistic environmental risk assessment for dibutylphthalate (DBP). Human and Ecological Risk Assessment 7 (6):1681-1697

DOI: 10.1080/20018091095302

[8] Johnston JJ, Snow JL (2007) Population-based fish consumption survey and probabilistic methylmercury risk assessment. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment 13 (6):1214-1227

DOI: 10.1080/10807030701655764

[9] Sofuoglu SC, Aslan G, Inal F, Sofuoglu A (2011) An assessment of indoor air concentrations and health risks of volatile organic compounds in three primary schools. International Journal of Hygiene and Environmental Health 214 (1):38-46

DOI: 10.1016/j.ijheh.2010.08.008

[10] Solomon K, Giesy J, Jones P (2000) Probabilistic risk assessment of agrochemicals in the environment. Crop Protection 19 (8-10):649-655

DOI: 10.1016/s0261-2194(00)00086-7

[11] Thompson KM, Graham JD (1996) Going beyond the single number: Using probabilistic risk assessment to improve risk management. Hum Ecol Risk Assess 2 (4):1008-1034

DOI: 10.1080/10807039609383660

[12] US EPA (2001) Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund: Volume III - Part A, Process for Conducting Probabilistic Risk Assessment. Available at: www.epa.gov/superfund/RAGS3A/index.htm

[13] Yu QJ, Cao Q, Connell DW (2012) An overall probability based method for qunatification of synergistic and antagonistic effects in health risk assessment for mixtures: Theoretical concenpts. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, in press.

DOI: 10.1007/s11356-012-0878-0