Uncertainty Analysis of Flood Forecasting in River Channel

Qun Hao; Ying Na Sun; Ning Jiang

doi:10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.550-553.2489

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HomeAdvanced Materials ResearchAdvanced Materials Research Vols. 550-553Uncertainty Analysis of Flood Forecasting in River...

Uncertainty Analysis of Flood Forecasting in River Channel

Abstract:

In this paper, the stochastic differential equations theory was used to analyze the uncertainty of flood forecasting in river channel based on the forward algorithm of linear characteristic. And then a river channel flood forecasting model, in which the coefficient of storage and discharge was regarded as a random variable, was built. The statistical characteristics of outflow process could be taken part in theory by the built river channel flood forecasting model when the coefficient of storage obeyed a kind of normal distribution. Storage coefficient is random variable in the model. The results showed that the uncertainty degree of outflow process could be made through considering the uncertainty of river channel flood forecasting, which would provide some references for making decision in flood control.

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Periodical:

Advanced Materials Research (Volumes 550-553)

Pages:

2489-2492

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.550-553.2489

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Online since:

July 2012

Authors:

Qun Hao, Ying Na Sun, Ning Jiang

Keywords:

Flood Forecasting, River Channel, Stochastic Differential Equation, Uncertainty Analysis

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