Quantifying Impact of Climate Change on Watershed Hydrologic Cycle Based on Multi-GCM Model

Yu Zhi Shi; Hai Jiao Liu; Ming Yuan Fan; Ji Wen Huang

doi:10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.726-731.3451

Paper Titles

Influence of Tidal Gate on Hydrodynamic and Sedimentary Environment
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Model Study of the Water Exchange in a Shallow Bay
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Numerical Investigation of the Upper Ocean Response to the Typhoon Winnie (1997) Using an Air-Sea Coupled Model
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Optimal Allocation of Water Resources of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Based on Multi-Objective Programming
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Quantifying Impact of Climate Change on Watershed Hydrologic Cycle Based on Multi-GCM Model
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Quantifying Irrigation Impact on Water Cycle Based on Improved SWAT Model in Paddy District
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Quantitative Research of China Agricultural Virtual Water Trade Based on CROPWAT Model
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Research of Critical Precipitation Distribution in Sichuan Province Based on Spatial Interpolation Method
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Research on Comprehensive Protection and Administration System of the Chinese Grand Canal
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HomeAdvanced Materials ResearchAdvanced Materials Research Vols. 726-731Quantifying Impact of Climate Change on Watershed...

Quantifying Impact of Climate Change on Watershed Hydrologic Cycle Based on Multi-GCM Model

Abstract:

Single climate model has much uncertainty on quantifying climate change, this paper proposes a new method, reliability ensemble averaging based on Bayesian weighted average (REA-BMA) to calculate the comprehensive climate change and then combines large-scale distributed watershed hydrologic cycling model SWAT to quantifying the effect of future climate change on basin water resources. The data sets from 1961 to 2040 of GCM models (HadCM3, CGCM3, BCCR, CSIRO) and three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B2) are taking for uncertainty analysis and Huntai River basin in China is selected as study case. The results show that the proposed method could efficiently quantify the affect of climate change on watershed hydrologic cycle.