Study on Water Ecological Security Evaluation Model Based on Multivariate Connection Number and Markov Chain

Hua Wei Chen; Xue Gao; Jian Liu; Xin Zhang; Hai Jiao Liu; Ji Wen Huang

doi:10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.726-731.4000

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HomeAdvanced Materials ResearchAdvanced Materials Research Vols. 726-731Study on Water Ecological Security Evaluation...

Study on Water Ecological Security Evaluation Model Based on Multivariate Connection Number and Markov Chain

Abstract:

The research of water ecological security evaluation has important practical significance. This paper integrates the multivariate connection number with Markov chain to construct a dynamic evaluation model and set up the water ecological security evaluation index system from four aspects: water resources, water ecological environment, water management and control, social economy. The proposed model and evaluation index system are applied to respectively evaluate the water ecological security of Shandong Province in 1993, 1999, 2005 and 2011, and forecast its change trend, the results indicate that the proposed model has a efficient performance, the "relatively insecure" grade and "relatively secure" grade alternated in the past, the steady-state level of the water ecological security grade in Shandong province tends to be "relatively insecure", and the trend of water ecological system would rise to "relatively insecure" in the future.