Unbiased Direct DGM(1,1) Model of Non-Homogeneous Exponential Sequence and its Application in Electric Load Forecasting

Abstract:

The traditional GM (1,1) has been used widely in the load forecasting, however, there are many defects in the GM (1,1). In order to overcome these defects and expand the application scope of the grey model in load forecasting, a new load forecasting method based on DDGM(1,1) is presented. First, the recursive solution of DDGM(1,1) is given. Then, based on the solution, the unbiased property for non-homogeneous exponential incremental sequence of this model is proved. It is applied to some load forecasting and is compared with the traditional GM (1,1) model.The results show that the presented forecasting method is superior obviously to traditional methods, and it can be used for the approximate non-homogeneous exponential incremental load forecasting generally.

• Periodical: Advanced Materials Research (Volumes 732-733)
• Pages: 972-975
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.732-733.972
• Online since: August 2013
• Authors: De Qiang Zhou
• Keywords: Direct Discrete GM(1,1) Model, Discrete GM(1,1) Model, GM(1,1) Model, Load Forecasting, Non-Homogeneous Exponential Incremental Sequence

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