Study on Urban Emergency Event Forecast - Taking Urban Traffic Accident in China as Example

Abstract:

In China, with the accelerated urbanization and the rapid growth of urban population, potential urban emergency risk factors gradually increased. Therefore, how to forecast the urban emergency events seems to be important. This study elaborated the mechanism of catastrophe theory and grey forecast method, established the grey cusp catastrophe model according to further research. An empirical analysis on Chinese urban traffic accident forecast was made by this model through four indicators: the number of occurrences, the number of deaths, the number of people injured and direct economic losses. By operating the model with data from 2002 to 2006, the accuracy is verified. Based on data from 2002 to 2011, the model result shows that the next traffic accident occurrence catastrophe will occur in 2015-2016, the next death number catastrophe will occur in 2012-2013, the next injured number catastrophe will occur in 2018-2019, the next direct economic loss catastrophe will occur in 2014-2015.

• Periodical: Advanced Materials Research (Volumes 734-737)
• Pages: 1629-1636
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.734-737.1629
• Online since: August 2013
• Authors: Di Lu*, Yao Wu Wang, Xiang Fei Niu
• Keywords: Catastrophe Theory, Grey Cusp Catastrophe Model, Grey Forecast Method, Urban Emergency Event

References

[1] Ruiren Li, Feiyue Li, Wanjun Ding: Mathematical statistics of future fire situation ，Fire Management Research [In Chinese]

[2] F.H. Ling, Catastrophe Theory and application, Shanghai Jiaotong University Press [In Chinese]

[3] L.P. Tang, The catastrophe control mechanisms and its application, Harbin Engineering University Engineering PhD thesis [In Chinese]

[4] H. Ping, Z.D. Zhao, Catastrophe theory and its application, Dalian University of Technology publications [In Chinese]

[5] A.Chen, J.H. Ma, Modern emergency management application and practice, science press pp.71-98

[6] F.H. Ling, Catastrophe Theory Getting Started, Shanghai Science and Technology Literature publications [In Chinese]

[7] Z.M. Xiong, Y.H. Song, The application of catastrophe theory in the large power system transient stability analysis, Information and Control [In Chinese]

[8] ARNOLD V I. Catastrophe Theory[M]. Berlin: Spring-verlag,1986.

[9] Poston T, Stewart I. Catastrophe Theory and its Applications[M]. London: Pitman Publishing Limited,1978.

[10] Zeeman E C. Catastrophe theory: Selected papers(1972-1977), Addison~Wesley, Reading, Massachusetts, 1977.

DOI: 10.1007/bf02460882

[11] Guasrello S.J. "Catastropbe modeling of the accident process: Evaluation of an aceident reduction using the occupational hazards survey", Accident Analysis And Prev.. Vol.ZI, N01: 61-77, 1989.

DOI: 10.1016/0001-4575(89)90049-3

[12] J.L. Deng, Gray system theory tutorial, Huazhong University of Science and Technology Press [In Chinese]

[13] Y.F. Ma, H.Y. Wen, Combination of gray theory and regression analysis model in deformation analysis, Geospatial information [In Chinese]

[14] J.Q. Luo, H.L. Fu, S.H. Guo, Collapse gray Mining technology

[15] S.Q. Qin, D.Y. Zhang, S.T. Wang, The grey catastrophe theory of landslide forecasts, Discovery of Nature

[16] Xie Zhikang, Fan Weieheng. Noulinear dynamics studyon mine ventilation system. In: Nobuy Tamai, ChengX F, eds. Proceedings of the Second Japan-ChinaBilateral Symposium on Safety and Environmental Engineering. Tokyo: University of Tokyo,1997.25-31 [In Chinese]

[17] Y.F. Zhang, Residual Modified Model and application Based on GM (1, 1), Water Sciences and Engineering Technology [In Chinese]