Analysis of Project Shedule Risk Indexes in PERT Network Using Monte Carlo Simulation

Yuan Liu; Zhuo Fu  Wang

doi:10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.760-762.2205

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HomeAdvanced Materials ResearchAdvanced Materials Research Vols. 760-762Analysis of Project Shedule Risk Indexes in PERT...

Analysis of Project Shedule Risk Indexes in PERT Network Using Monte Carlo Simulation

Abstract:

It is convenient and effective to use Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) technique in project schedule risk analysis and assessment, but at the same time, the indexes put forward by scholars up to now is quite few, leaving construction schedule risk assessment still difficult to carry out. Therefore, based on PERT network assumption, the shortcomings of current project schedule risk indexes are summarized and new project schedule risk index is put forward to estimate the criticality of each activity and path to provide more information for project schedule controllers. In the case studied, with the application of the new index, the critical index of each activity is given and divided into five levels, and the new index put forward in this paper shows great superiority over the classic indexes.

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Periodical:

Advanced Materials Research (Volumes 760-762)

Pages:

2205-2211

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.760-762.2205

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Online since:

September 2013

Authors:

Yuan Liu, Zhuo Fu Wang

Keywords:

Assessment, Criticality, Monte-Carlo Simulation, Program Evaluation and Review Techinique (PERT), Project Management (PM), Schedule Risk Analysis

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