The Scenario Forecasting Analysis of CO2 Emissions of China

Jian Jun Wang; Li Li

doi:10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.869-870.836

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Sustainable Development of Steel and Iron Company under the Circular Economy Mode - A Case Study from JSIC
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Research on Innovation Performance Evaluation Index System of the Productive Service Industry Cluster Based on the Process of Network Innovation
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The Scenario Forecasting Analysis of CO2 Emissions of China

Abstract:

This paper uses STRIPAT models to find the impact of population, economy and technology on CO2 emissions of China. The result shows the impact of population, economy and technology on CO2 emissions are 1.253, 1.076, and 1.077 respectively. According to the future prospect of China, three scenarios of Chinas economic development are given to forecast the CO2 emissions, the forecasting results shows that if Chinas economic, population and energy consumption is increasing 7%, 0.4%, 5% every year, respectively. CO2 emissions will reach 21.05×10⁸t in 2020. The CO2 emissions per unit GDP is decreasing by 45.54% in 2020 compared to 2005, which can fulfill the Chinese governments promise to decrease the GHG emissions per unit GDP by 40-45% in 2020 compared to 2005.