Medium and Long Term Load Forecasting of Power System Based on Interval Taylor Model Arithmetic

Abstract:

For long time span, the impact of many factors, uncertainties and other characteristics of mid-long term load forecasting, as well as the over-estimation of interval arithmetic, a mid-long term load forecasting method based on interval Taylor model algorithm was presented. In order to avoid misjudgment of the relationship between variables, reducing over-estimation problem, a global variable named Taylor model ID was presented to identify the independent variables and the dependent variable. The same independent variables construct the interval Taylor model only once. Use Maclaurin formula to derive the interval Taylor model of correlation function formula, and then get a quadratic exponential smoothing method based on interval the Taylor model. The proposed method has been tested on a provincial calculation. The results demonstrated the effectiveness and practical value of the approach by comparing with the results of Monte Carlo simulation and interval method.

• Periodical: Advanced Materials Research (Volumes 986-987)
• Pages: 354-357
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMR.986-987.354
• Online since: July 2014
• Authors: Zhi Jie Zheng*, Shou Xiang Wang, Yan Wang, Long Zhao, Jie Zhang
• Keywords: Interval Arithmetic, Mid-Long Term Load Forecasting, Monte Carlo Method, Reliable Computing, Taylor Model

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