Impact of Climatic Change on the Runoff of Hebei Province of China in Recent 50 Years

Abstract:

According to the data of climate and runoff from 68 weather stations and 105 hydrologic stations in Hebei province between 1956 and 2000, the change of climatic essential factors and runoff are analyzed. Since the 1960s, the average annual temperature in Hebei province has been increasing gradually. Compared with the 1960s, the temperature in the 1990s has risen 0.9°C. From the age, the average annual evaporation as a whole in Hebei province has appeared a tendency to decline. And it descends 62mm every ten years on average. The average year’s precipitation has gradually diminished by the years. Compared with the 1950s, the precipitation in the 1990s has decreased 60mm. The average years runoff of the whole province, which declines 19.4×108m3 every ten years on average, emerging a gradually decreasing trend from the 1950s to the 1990s, is120.2×108m3. With the decrease of the precipitation and the rise of the temperature, the runoff declines. The models of climatic essential factors and the runoff established by utilizing the multiple regression analysis are logarithmic non-linear functions. Obviously, the impact of precipitation variety on the runoff is more than the effect of the temperature or the evaporation change on the runoff by the sensitivity analysis. According to the prediction of the future climatic change with regard to the runoff, the whole province runoff will alter from 114.36 to 138.24×108m3 in 2030. Similarly, the runoff will vary from 106.8 to 137.8×108m3 in 2050.

• Periodical: Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volumes 170-173)
• Pages: 2119-2126
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.170-173.2119
• Online since: May 2012
• Authors: Ai Jun Shao*, Zhi Guang Li
• Keywords: Climatic Change, Hebei Province, Runoff, Sensitivity Analysis

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