Cost Risk Assessment for Large Hydropower Project Based on the Probability Distribution

Nian Mu Zhang; Fu Lai Luo; Lei Bi; Lian Xing Hu

doi:10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.212-213.1015

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HomeApplied Mechanics and MaterialsApplied Mechanics and Materials Vols. 212-213Cost Risk Assessment for Large Hydropower Project...

Cost Risk Assessment for Large Hydropower Project Based on the Probability Distribution

Abstract:

Probability distribution is adopted to evaluate the cost risk of large hydropower project. Risk factors are firstly identified through Work Breakdown Structure(WBS), Cost Breakdown Structure(CBS) and Risk Breakdown Structure(RBS), and then individual risk factor probability distribution is measured by method combined Monte Carlo simulation model and the controlled interval memory (CIM) model. By superimposing individual ones, probability distribution of cost under the influence of a number of risk factors is achieved, which provides effective information for investment decision and cost control.

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Periodical:

Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volumes 212-213)

Pages:

1015-1019

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.212-213.1015

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Online since:

October 2012

Authors:

Nian Mu Zhang, Fu Lai Luo, Lei Bi, Lian Xing Hu

Keywords:

Controlled Interval Memory Model, Cost Risk Assessment, Hydropower Project, Monte-Carlo Simulation

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