Forecasting Model Based on Improved Grey-Markov

Abstract:

It is great significance to forecast the water quality of Poyang Lake in the construction of Poyang Lake Ecological Economic Zone.On the condition of limited historical data,for resolving the prediction,by combining the advantages of both grey prediction and Markov theory,an improved grey-Markov model is established.First the sequence is moved average,and then unbiased grey-Markov prediction is established to imitate the development tendency of the forecast system.Divide system state into five parts by Markov chain in order to inprove the prediction accuracy. By analying an example,comparing the predicted values and real measured values,The results show that the model has a certain accuracy and reliability

• Periodical: Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volumes 220-223)
• Pages: 2758-2762
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.220-223.2758
• Online since: November 2012
• Authors: Qun Cao, Bing Xiang Liu, Xiang Cheng
• Keywords: Markov Chain, Poyang Lake, Unbiased GM(1,1), Water Quality Prediction

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