A Learning Model of Passenger’s Path Choice in Urban Rail Network Based on Bayesian Method

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Abstract:

To determine passenger’s path choice is the base for research on ridership distribution in urban rail network. Considering passenger’s multi-days’ trips as a process to continuously update path information expressed by its sample mean and variance of travel cost, the paper establishes a self-learning model of passenger’s path choice in urban rail network based on Bayesian method by analyzing the acquisition of prior information beforetrip and knowledge updating after trip, as well as taking the adjustment of Urban Rail Transit operating conditions into account.The model proposed can be used to analyze the passenger flow formation and evolution mechanism in urban rail network.

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1782-1786

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December 2012

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© 2013 Trans Tech Publications Ltd. All Rights Reserved

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DOI: 10.1061/40932(246)571

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