Comprehensive Decision-Making of Power Planning Including Clean Energy and Low-Carbon Electricity Technology

Abstract:

According to the characteristics of power planning, select four key planning scenarios, calculate the initial probability and simulation probability in sequence, and thus calculate the scenario probability. Define the screening considering the scenario probability and incidence of evaluation factor index for the typical scenario. In the decision-making process, the fuzzy decision method of interval numbers based on trapezoidal membership function is used to calculate the scheme membership, which overcomes the difficulty of precise calculation problem for planning index. And according to maximum membership degree for sorting, finally obtaining quality comparison results of the scenarios. As an example of a "twelfth five-year" planning of one city, an integrated decision making of power planning is developed, the simulation results show the scientificity and rationality of the method.

• Periodical: Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volumes 347-350)
• Pages: 1383-1387
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.347-350.1383
• Online since: August 2013
• Authors: Jia Qing Zhong, Xiao Hui Zhang, Ke Ke Yan, Li Ye Ma, Hua Wei Hu
• Keywords: Evaluation Factors, Integrated Decision Making, Power Grid Planning, Scenario Analysis, Trapezoidal Membership Function

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