The Research of Rainfall Error Correction Based on System Response Curve

Abstract:

The rainfall error affects the accuracy of flood forecasting directly, and the error correction is very important to improve the accuracy of real-time flood forecasting. The system response curve was introduced into the real-time flood forecast updating system, and the error feedback updating model tracing the source of information was established in this paper. In order to certificate the feasibility, rationality and effectiveness of the method multi-directionally, the system response curve method and the second order autoregressive error correction were used in updating the 13 flood events of the Wangjiaba sub-basin of Huaihe River Basin respectively. The results show that the system response curve (SRC) method has physical conception, reasonable structure and good effect. The method will not lose the forecasting period and without increasing the parameters. In this study, the average NS of system response curve method was larger than 0.920. So, this method can be widely used in rainfall error correction for real-time flood forecasting.

• Periodical: Applied Mechanics and Materials (Volumes 368-370)
• Pages: 335-339
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/AMM.368-370.335
• Online since: August 2013
• Authors: Wei Si, Wei Min Bao, Hong Yan Wang, Si Min Qu
• Keywords: Flood Forecasting, HYDROLOGY, Rainfall Error, System Response Curve

References

[1] BOGNER K, KALAS M. Error-correction methods and evaluation of an ensemble based hydrological forecasting system for the Upper Danube catchment[J]. ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS, 2008, 9: 95-102.

DOI: 10.1002/asl.180

[2] KOMMA J, BLÖSCHL G, RESZLER C. Soil moisture updating by Ensemble Kalman Filtering in real-time flood forecasting[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2008, 357: 228-242.

DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.05.020

[3] MADSEN H, SKOTNER C. Adaptive state updating in real-time river flow forecasting-a combined filtering and error forecasting procedure[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2005, 308: 302–312.

DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.10.030

[4] PAGANO T C, WANG Q J, HAPUARACHCHI P, et al A dual-pass error-correction technique for forecasting streamflow[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2011, 405: 367-381.

DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.05.036

[5] BAO, Wei-min, ZHANG, Xiao-qin; QU, Si-min. Dynamic correction of roughness in the Hydrodynamic Model [J]. Journal of Hydrodynamics, 2009, 21(2), 255-263.

DOI: 10.1016/s1001-6058(08)60143-2

[6] Weimin Bao, Xiaoqin Zhang, Zhongbo Yu, et al. Real-time equivalent conversion correction on river stage forecasting with manning's formula [J]. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering，2011, 1(1)：1-10.

DOI: 10.1061/(asce)he.1943-5584.0000279

[7] Weimin Bao, Wei Si, Guohua Shen, et al. Runoff error updating based on unit hydrograph inversion[J]. Advances in Water Science, 2012, 23(3): 315-322.

[8] Bao Wei-min, Hydrological Forecasting[M]. Beijing: China WaterPower Press, 2006, 215-235. (in Chinese).

[9] CHARLES A L, Lei Wen, Guihua Lu, et al. Real-time forecast of the 2005 and 2007 summer severe floods in the Huaihe River Basin of China[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2010, 381: 33-41.

DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.11.017

[10] Li Fugui. Study on Flood Forecasting and Regulating of the Linhuaigang Project on Huaihe River[D]. Nanjing: Hohai University, 2007, 13-25.