The Probabilistic Method of Failure Analysis to Transmission Facilities under Ice Storms
Based on Extreme Value Theory (EVT), the Generalized Pareto Distributions (GPDs) of meteorological variables wind speed and freezing precipitation is simulated. Considering the dependence of them, a joint probability distribution is calculated by the Copula function. Further more, the probability distributions of ice loads and wind loads on transmission lines are analyzed, and the failure probability of broken lines and collapsed towers under ice storms is calculated. The accuracy and validity of this analytical method is demonstrated with comparison between numerical results and the historical datas of Chen Zhou power transmission systems.
Yi-Min Deng, Aibing Yu, Weihua Li and Di Zheng
W. J. Xu et al., "The Probabilistic Method of Failure Analysis to Transmission Facilities under Ice Storms", Applied Mechanics and Materials, Vols. 37-38, pp. 1525-1528, 2010