A Systematic Dynamics Risk Evaluation Model of Coalmine Production System
The paper analyses hierarchical causality relationships of the coalmining systems; based on the causality loop of mining job quantity and quality, the sources of the risks of the systems, setup for the first time a dynamic risk evaluation model of the mining systems. It depicts that the principal causes for the mishaps in the coalmine is to chase an extra coal output while the quality of mining jobs remain insufficient. After successful running of the model in Vensim software under different scenarios, dataset of the occurrences of calamities due to variances of the quality of mining jobs are obtained and used to evaluate the degree of risks and safety of the coalmining system.
Zhu Zhilin & Patrick Wang
Q. J. Ma et al., "A Systematic Dynamics Risk Evaluation Model of Coalmine Production System", Applied Mechanics and Materials, Vols. 40-41, pp. 801-805, 2011